Hi Chris. I think I have to disagree with some of what you were saying about the use of LED instead of regular PAR 64's. Although you make valid points, I don't think you have considered everything you need to before coming to the conclusions that you did.
I think that you missed the point I was trying to make about the usages of LED over standard cans. Yes, if you have an infinite amount of power to play with, I would go with standard 64's for a BIG gig. But where power is an issue, the LED's are the only way to go I would think. Yes, you have to run link cables between the fixtures and 1 XLR cable from your board to your light rig, but I wouldn't think that it would be any more painful than having to jack around with say a ton of dimmer packs. As you said, most of the cabling issues can be a semi-permanent mount configuration, so it's basically a one-time setup. Now factor in the sheer numbers you can power just off of one 20 amp circuit if you are forced to use AC plugs. At .2 amp draw, you could set up pretty close to 100 fixtures out of 1 circuit. How does that compare to a standard par 64? Maybe 4 or 5 standard cans out of the same 20 amp circuit? Drop it to 46's and you might get, I am guessing here, maybe 8 off of that circuit? Piggy-backing off of what you said about clients always wanting more light, then LED is a possible solution for you. You could put up enough lighting to make people see Jesus all while using the power consumption of a small window air-conditioner paired up with your favorite toaster.
In as far as costs go, yes, the up-front cost is significantly more in going with LED. However, I think that you will agree that adding up all of the maintenence costs of standard cans over say a 10-15 year life-span that you would theorhetically get out of the LED cans would be considerably more than the initial costs of the LED stuff. Think about how many bulbs you would go through on a standard can to get 100,000 hours of total burn time that you should get out of the LED stuff. I'm not sure what bulbs cost for standard cans anymore, but I know they aren't cheap. Now I know I said that if power weren't an issue that I would go with standard cans. And I stick by that provided that all you do is BIG gigs. I would think that doing a medium or small gig would make the standard 64's overkill, so you would have to downgrade to a smaller can. So now your lighting costs include two separate light rigs. Having 2 light rigs is great if your company is big enough to run at 2 different venues at the same time, but if you aren't, then you are paying for something to take up space sitting in trailer. Yes, you could run nothing but standard 46's and 38's, but then you go back to power issues if you have to light a big show on short power with smaller cans and having to compensate with larger numbers of fixtures. That's why I said that the LEDs are more versatile, you can do either show with them.
As far as having to rig 4 times the amount of cans to get the same output, I think you are dead wrong here. Yes, I agree that the output on the LED cans is not quite up to standard can levels. However, I haven't seen any comparision of numbers on paper, but I have seen them running side by side and I think your quote of less than 1/8 the output is off quite a bit. Nonetheless, they are dimmer, but I don't think they are as dim as you may be thinking. Tell me this, though, how often does every can on a rig get turned on at the same time using standard cans? Everything I have ever seen at a show was set up on some sort of a chase or series of scenes, since every can had a specific color gel on it. As an example if you have 32 cans with 8 different color gels on them. Say you want to do a stage wash of blue, you might get 4-8 cans to do it with, depending on how you have them gelled. Now if you have 32 LED cans on the rack, you can set them all to do blue at the same time to acheive your wash. Set them up on a fade to red and get it all out of the same cans. If you see what I am saying here, you can get the same level of lighting out of the same amount of fixtures even though the light output of the LED is less than conventional cans because you can use more of them for any given color. That being said, you could feasible get close to the same lighting out of an equal number of cans. The only time pure total output would even be an issue would be in looking at the totals of everything when everything was turned on at the same time.
Now before you start thinking that I am the world's biggest LED guru, I do have some negatives that are worth mentioning. In THEORY, LED cans should last about 10-15 years or so going strictly off of the actual LED life expectancy. However in a touring situation, I don't know that they would be durable enough to make it that long. I know that touring rigs are sometime mistreated a little bit and the wear and tear adds up over time. That being said, durability would be a concern of mine. Also, the LED 64's do take up a lot of space, especially if you are talking about running 32+ cans. I know for me, the 8 that I have take up pretty much the entire top row on my light truss, as well as a large amount of space in the trailer to and from gigs. So it's not the perfect solution to every lighting situation, but I think it's worth considering.
By the way, I checked out your website. You run some top notch gear there man!